September 2021 Archives

Further Still On A Clockwork Contagion

My fellow students and I have spent the past several months attempting to build a mathematical model of the spread of disease, our interest in the subject having been piqued whilst we were confined to our halls of residence during the epidemic that beset us upon the dawn of the year. Having commenced with the assumption that those who became infected would be infectious immediately and in perpetuity we refined our model by adding a non-infectious period of incubation and a finite period of illness, after which sufferers should recover with consequent immunity and absence of infectiousness.
A fundamental weakness in our model that we have lately sought to address is the presumption that individuals might initiate contact with other members of the population entirely by chance when it is far more likely that they should interact with those in their immediate vicinity. It is upon our first attempt at correcting this deficiency that I should now like to report.

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